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Prop recommendations: Jets vs Colts

By Steven Schwarz

With just a few hours before kickoff, here are two quick prop plays that come recommended via use of SISBets.com and DraftKings.

1) Michael Carter, score a touchdown, +160.

It appears that the oddsmakers haven’t caught up to Michael Carter’s “takeover” of the Jets’ backfield. At SIS, our analysis predicts he’ll get 14 rushing attempts and six targets and will combine for 100 yards (55.5 rushing yards and 44.9 receiving yards) including a 73.3% chance of scoring a touchdown. He has scored in three of the last four games.

Based on these numbers, Carter should be a -123 favorite to score, but the oddsmakers have him listed at +160.

2) Jonathan Taylor, over 2.5 receptions, +125. SB -194

We think of Taylor as a first- and second-down running back with Nyheim Hines as the receiving back, but in 2021, Taylor is doing double-duty. In addition to 15 rushing attempts per game, he’s caught at least three balls in 5-of-8 games this season and four-of-the-last five. SIS data has him getting 4.6 targets and catching 3.4 balls for 37 yards.

A fair market price would be -194, but the current odds are +125.

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