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Top Prop Bet Options for Cardinals-Packers

by STEVEN SCHWARZ

This Thursday Night Football game between the Cardinals and Packers. should be a great matchup, perhaps even a preview of a Divisional Playoff game or Conference Championship. There’s a lot to look forward to as we watch Kyler Murray and Aaron Rodgers at work.

But from a gambling perspective, there’s one caveat: Notice that Green Bay receiver odds for both receptions and yards are not available.

There are too many question marks as of this writing related to who will be catching balls from  Rodgers. His main receiver Davante Adams, is sidelined with a positive Covid-19 test and Allen Lazard, as an unvaccinated close contact, has also been ruled out.

The biggest question is whether Marquez Valdes-Scantling (hamstring) will be activated from the IR. No Packer is listed for over/under receptions and only tight ends and running back Aaron Jones are listed for receiving yards.

With that, here are our picks:

1) Kyler Murray, under 24.5 completions, under -105.

Murray is playing at an MVP level, but the 24.5 completion level is too high. He has reached that total just twice in seven games and not since Week 3. DraftKings set the odds at -105, but the SIS data analysis predicts 22.5 completions for 244.6 yards and 1.7 touchdowns. The fair market value for this “under” should be -207.

2) Zach Ertz, under 3.5 receptions, under -170.

Ertz, traded from Philadelphia just a week ago, exploded onto the scene with a 47-yard touchdown catch and run and is just what the Cardinals needed. But he is one of many talented pass catchers on this team which includes; DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk, A.J. Green and rookie Rondale Moore. Running back Chase Edmonds also catches the ball well.

Ertz is likely behind all five players on the target totem pole. Our analysis has Ertz seeing 3.7 targets and catching 2.3 balls for 24 yards. That sets the fair under value at -398, but at DraftKings it’s just -170.

3) AJ Dillon, over 31.5 rushing yards, over -115.

Dillon has become a significant part of the Packers running game as the season has progressed. He had 19 touches in the first three games this season, but that number jumped to 39 in the next three contests. The Cardinals have been very good near the goal line, allowing just one rushing touchdown, but they are middle-of-the-road in yards allowed (86.2 ypg). The SIS data expects Dillon to rush for 40.8 yards, well above the 31.5 yards needed for the over.

*Odds courtesy of DraftKings

 

Odds –

 

Quarterback Passing Yards

————————————

Aaron Rodgers, 255.5 yards, over -115/under -115

Kyler Murray, 276.5 yards, over -115/under -115

 

Quarterback Passing TDs

———————————–

Aaron Rodgers, over 1.5, TDs, -165/under +125

Kyler Murray, over 2.5 TDs, +150/under -205

 

Quarterback Interceptions

———————————-

Aaron Rodgers, over 0.5, INTs, +160/under -215

Kyler Murray, over 0.5 INTs, +105/under -140

 

Quarterback Completions

———————————-

Aaron Rodgers, over 24.5, -105/under -125

Kyler Murray, over 24.5, -125/under -105

 

Touchdown Scorers

Green Bay –

Aaron Jones, -120

Randall Cobb, +225

Robert Tonyan, +225

Marquez Valdes-Scantling, +250

AJ Dillon, +275

Equanimeous St. Brown, +400

Aaron Rodgers, +450

Marcedes Lewis, +750

 

Arizona –

James Conner, +100

DeAndre Hopkins, +110

Kyler Murray, +140

Zach Ertz, +175

Chase Edmonds, +200

AJ Green, +225

Christian Kirk, +225

Rondale Moore, +330

 

Rushing Yards

——————-

Green Bay –

Aaron Jones, 59.5, over -115/under -115

Aaron Rodgers, 9.5, over -110/under -120

AJ Dillon, 31.5, over -115/under -115

 

Arizona –

Chase Edmonds, 44.5 yards, over -115/under -115

James Conner, 48.5 yards, over -115/under -115

Kyler Murray, 28.5 yards, over -115/under -115

 

Receiving Yards

———————

Green Bay –

Aaron Jones, 33.5, over -125/under -110

Marcedes Lewis, 18.5, over -110/under -120

Robert Tonyan, 35.5, over -120/under -110

 

Arizona –

AJ Green, 46.5, over -115/under -115

Chase Edmonds, 22.5, over -115/under -115

Christian Kirk, 45.5, over -110/under -120

DeAndre Hopkins, 5.5, over -115/under -115

Rondale Moore, 3.5, over -110/under -120

Zach Ertz, 30.5, over -115/under -115

 

Receptions

————–

Green Bay –

 

Arizona –

AJ Green, 3.5, over -135/under +100

Chase Edmonds, 3.5, over +115/under -150

Christian Kirk, 3.5, over -160/under +120

DeAndre Hopkins, 5.5, over -110/under -120

Rondale Moore, 3.5, over +105/under -140

Zach Ertz, 3.5, over +130/under -175

 

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