What the data shows: Prop Bet Possibilities for Eagles-Buccaneers
By Steven Schwarz
Here are 3 prop bet options that jibe with what we can find on SIS Bets.
*Odds courtesy of DraftKings
1) Chris Godwin, 5.5 receptions, under -110
The Tampa Bay offense has been dominated by their air attack, but it’s pretty diverse with dangerous options everywhere even with tight end Rob Gronkowski sidelined. Godwin gets his fair share, but Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, Cameron Brate and Giovani Bernard have kept Godwin from exploding for most of the season.
We see that trend continuing and SIS data has Godwin seeing just 6.2 targets for which he’ll catch 4.5 receptions for 56.8 yards. Based on that data a fair market value for the under would be -237, but DraftKings has placed the odds at -110.
2) Giovani Bernard, 1.5 receptions, over -150.
Bernard has caught 15-of-17 targets this season. He’s grabbed at least two balls in all four games he’s played to date. That should continue in Week 6 as SIS analysis expects Bernard to catch 2.7 of his 3.6 targets for 24.5 yards.
Fair market odds would put the true value at -302, but you’re only paying -150 at DraftKings.
3) Kenneth Gainwell, 3.5 receptions, under -135.
Gainwell continues to carve out a place in the Eagles’ offense and he’s done it primarily as a pass receiver out of the backfield, but he’s only caught more than three balls one time this season. He averages 2.8 receptions this season. Therefore, we like the under 3.5 receptions here. Fair market value should be -352 as we are projecting just 2.4 receptions for 24.9 yards.
Sports Info Solutions has been an innovator in the collection and analysis of sports data for almost two decades. SIS specializes in baseball and football data, using professional scouting practices to collect the most detailed and accurate information in both sports. Their data can be found in the majority of team front offices, and on websites such as Fangraphs and Football Outsiders.