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Top Prop Bets for Thursday’s Week 3 – Panthers at Texans

BY STEVE SCHWARZ

If not for prop bets and fantasy football, would we actually watch this game?

Just kidding: It’s not that bad.

The Panthers have won two straight to start the season including a demolition of the Saints and the Texans beat up on a bad Jacksonville team before losing last week to a good Browns team. We don’t see any props we like among the quarterbacks but have a few other ones that we like.

Full disclosure: Our picks are 2-7 to start the season after an 0-3 week last week.

Here are Thursday’s selections using odds provided by DraftKings in an effort to turn that around.

You can use SISBets.com to get your own projections – registered users can try 10 free queries.

1) Anthony Miller, 2.5 receptions, under -150

Miller hasn’t played yet this season, being a healthy scratch after missing most of the preseason due to a dislocated shoulder. Even if he’s active, he likely hasn’t practiced with the new starting quarterback Davis Mills.

While he’s been absent, Brandin Cooks established himself as the No. 1 option with 21 targets with Danny Amendola, Pharaoh Brown and RB David Johnson getting six targets each.

Given his “rust” and playing for a new team after three season with the Bears, we can’t see him getting three receptions.

In fact, the SIS calculations show that the under should be a -312 favorite and DraftKings shows it at only -150.

2) Terrace Marshall Jr., 2.5 receptions, over -135

Marshall is just a rookie (LSU) and the No. 3 receiver behind Robby Anderson and DJ Moore, but he’s been solidly involved in the Panthers passing game. He’s caught three balls in each game and got six targets in their only competitive game, the Week 1 19-14 win over the Jets.

He’s getting plenty of playing time, getting 52% of their 140 snaps over the two games. Based on the SIS data, Marshall should be a -194 favorite, but DraftKings is setting the number at -135.

3) Jordan Akins, 1.5 receptions, under +115

Akins has been a solid contributor in the past with 36-418-2 in 2019 and 37-403-1 in 2020, but this season he’s gotten just four targets, with one reception in two games, and isn’t starting.

Admittedly he’s gotten plenty of snaps (85-of-139). But given that he’s not been a priority target, the SIS data has him as -196 for the under and you are being offered +115. That’s one to take.

SIS has been an innovator in the collection and analysis of sports data for almost two decades. SIS specializes in baseball, football, and basketball data, using professional scouting practices to collect the most detailed and accurate information in both sports. Its data can be found in the majority of team front offices, and on websites such as Fangraphs and Football Outsiders.

 

Quarterback Passing Yards

————————————

Sam Darnold, over 265.5, -115/under -115

Davis Mills, over 211.5 -115/under -115

 

Quarterback Passing TDs

———————————–

Sam Darnold, over 1.5, TDs, -160/under +120

Davis Mills, over 1.5 TDs, +180/under -250

 

Quarterback Interceptions

———————————-

Sam Darnold, over 0.5, INTs, +110/under -150

Davis Mills, over 0.5 INTs, -205/under +155

 

Quarterback Completions

———————————-

Sam Darnold, over 23.5, completions, +100/under -130

Davis Mills, over 18.5 completions, -120/under -110

 

Touchdown Scorers

————————–

Carolina –

Christian McCaffrey, -250

DJ Moore, +110

Robby Anderson, +175

Terrace Marshall Jr., +275

Sam Darnold, +310

Chuba Hubbard, +400

Dan Arnold, +400

Brandon Zylstra, +550

Ian Thomas, +800

Royce Freeman, +900

 

Houston –

Brandin Cooks, +200

Mark Ingram, +225

Phillip Lindsay, +250

Chris Conley, +300

David Johnson, +300

Anthony Miller, +400

Andre Roberts, +450

Jordan Akins, +500

Pharaoh Brown, +500

Davis Mills, +650

 

Rushing Yards

——————-

Carolina –

Christian McCaffrey, 82.5, over -115/under -115

Sam Darnold, 6.5, over -115/under -115

 

Houston –

David Johnson, 67.5, over -115/under -115

Mark Ingram, 36.5, over -115/under -115

Phillip Lindsay, 21.5, over -115/under -115

 

Receiving Yards

———————

Carolina –

Christian McCaffrey, 49.5, over -115/under -115

DJ Moore, 67.5, over -115/under -115

Robby Anderson, 43.5, over -115/under -115

Terrace Marshall Jr., 28.5, over -115/under -115

Dan Arnold, 23.5, over -115/under -115

 

Houston –

Brandin Cooks, 68.5, over -115/under -115

Mark Ingram, 3.5, over -110/under -120

Phillip Lindsay, 2.5, over -110/under -120

Chris Conley, 26.5, over -115/under -115

David Johnson, 17.5, over -110/under -120

Anthony Miller, 25.5, over -115/under -115

Jordan Akins, 16.5, over -115/under -115

Pharaoh Brown, 18.5, over -110/under -120

 

Receptions

————–

Carolina –

Christian McCaffrey, 5.5, over +105/under -140

DJ Moore, 5.5, over +110/under -145

Robby Anderson, 3.5, over -150/under +115

Terrace Marshall Jr., 2.5, over -135/under +100

Dan Arnold, 2.5, over +140/under -190

 

Houston –

Brandin Cooks, 5.5, over -115/under -115

Chris Conley, 2.5, over +100/under -135

David Johnson, 2.5, over +105/under -140

Anthony Miller, 2.5, over +110/under -150

Jordan Akins, 1.5, over -150/under +115

Pharaoh Brown, 1.5, over -180/under +135

 

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