(Updated) World’s No. 1 Quarterback Rankings
By MARK SIMON & ALEX VIGDERMAN
Week 10 was a heck of a bounceback for Tom Brady.
Brady went from the basement and the worst Points Above Average (PAA) of Week 9 in a loss to the Saints to the best performance of the week in that stat in Week 10 against the Panthers. He was better at everything, perhaps most notably under pressure where he earned 10 Total Points after going 9-of-14 for 93 yards and a touchdown against the Panthers, but netted only 1 Total Point when he was 7-of-16 for 71 yards and an interception against the Saints.
As a result, Brady moved up three spots to No. 5 in our World’s No. 1 Quarterback rankings. He moved past Drew Brees, Deshaun Watson, and Matt Ryan. He’s in the Top 5 for the first time since he entered Week 14 of last season.
The new Top 10 is:
1. Patrick Mahomes
2. Aaron Rodgers
3. Russell Wilson
4. Derek Carr
5. Tom Brady
6. Drew Brees
7. Deshaun Watson
8. Matt Ryan
9. Philip Rivers
10. Josh Allen
The World’s No. 1 Quarterback Ranking is based on a model devised by Bill James to evaluate The World’s No. 1 Starting Pitcher. Bill’s model was based on cumulative evaluation of individual starts over an extended time period using the metric Game Score.
The World’s No. 1 Quarterback Ranking uses our player value stat, Total Points to make a cumulative evaluation of game performance over a three-year period. The key to our calculation is Points Above Average, the statistical underpinning of Total Points that is centered at zero so that positive numbers are above average and negative numbers are below average.
Success over time is key to maintaining a good ranking. Prolonged inactivity results in a ranking drop. The recent performances carry the most weight.
There wasn’t much movement among those quarterbacks other than Brady’s ascension. Rivers and Allen switched places after Rivers threw for 308 yards against the Titans and Allen threw two interceptions in a heartbreaking loss to the Cardinals.
Rivers had the No. 3 game in PAA for the week behind Brady and Kirk Cousins, who remains nestled at the No. 11 spot in our rankings even after a strong showing on Monday Night Football against the Bears.
Tua passes Lamar Jackson
Elsewhere, Tua Tagovailoa continued his rise after a respectable 169-yard, two-touchdown effort against the Chargers, moved up three spots to No. 23, and passed Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, and Jimmy Garoppolo.
Tagovailoa still has room for growth. He ranks 35th in on-target percentage among the 40 quarterbacks with the most pass attempts.
A rough quarterbacking week
If it seemed like quarterbacks were off their game in Week 10, that’s a reasonable assessment. A season-high 11 quarterbacks turned in games of -5 PAA or worse. That was the most such games since Week 13 of the 2018 season had 12 (quarterbacks that week included Jeff Driskel, Josh McCown, Cody Kessler, and Mark Sanchez).
Drew Lock suffered the most, falling from No. 28 to well out of the top 30 after throwing four interceptions against the Raiders.
Lowest-Scoring PAA Games of Week 10
Alex Smith takes a positive from defeat
Lastly (but no longer last), Alex Smith had the fourth-best game of the week by PAA with a 390-yard effort in a loss to the Vikings. That moved him out of the bottom spot (No. 83) in our rankings, which is now held by Sam Darnold. Carson Wentz’s descent continues. He’s only one spot ahead of Darnold.
The complete rankings are below.
World’s No. 1 Quarterback Rankings
|Rk||Player||PAA Per 60||Last Rk||Start Of Season|
|53||Robert Griffin III||-3.0||56||62|