(Updated) World’s No. 1 Quarterback Rankings

By MARK SIMON & ALEX VIGDERMAN

Week 10 was a heck of a bounceback for Tom Brady.

Brady went from the basement and the worst Points Above Average (PAA) of Week 9 in a loss to the Saints to the best performance of the week in that stat in Week 10 against the Panthers. He was better at everything, perhaps most notably under pressure where he earned 10 Total Points after going 9-of-14 for 93 yards and a touchdown against the Panthers, but netted only 1 Total Point when he was 7-of-16 for 71 yards and an interception against the Saints.

As a result, Brady moved up three spots to No. 5 in our World’s No. 1 Quarterback rankings. He moved past Drew Brees, Deshaun Watson, and Matt Ryan. He’s in the Top 5 for the first time since he entered Week 14 of last season.

The new Top 10 is:

1. Patrick Mahomes

2. Aaron Rodgers

3. Russell Wilson

4. Derek Carr

5. Tom Brady

6. Drew Brees

7. Deshaun Watson

8. Matt Ryan

9. Philip Rivers

10. Josh Allen

The World’s No. 1 Quarterback Ranking is based on a model devised by Bill James to evaluate The World’s No. 1 Starting Pitcher. Bill’s model was based on cumulative evaluation of individual starts over an extended time period using the metric Game Score.

The World’s No. 1 Quarterback Ranking uses our player value stat, Total Points to make a cumulative evaluation of game performance over a three-year period. The key to our calculation is Points Above Average, the statistical underpinning of Total Points that is centered at zero so that positive numbers are above average and negative numbers are below average.

Success over time is key to maintaining a good ranking. Prolonged inactivity results in a ranking drop. The recent performances carry the most weight.

Minor Adjustments

There wasn’t much movement among those quarterbacks other than Brady’s ascension. Rivers and Allen switched places after Rivers threw for 308 yards against the Titans and Allen threw two interceptions in a heartbreaking loss to the Cardinals.

Rivers had the No. 3 game in PAA for the week behind Brady and Kirk Cousins, who remains nestled at the No. 11 spot in our rankings even after a strong showing on Monday Night Football against the Bears.

Tua passes Lamar Jackson

Elsewhere, Tua Tagovailoa  continued his rise after a respectable 169-yard, two-touchdown effort against the Chargers, moved up three spots to No. 23, and passed Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, and Jimmy Garoppolo.

Tagovailoa still has room for growth. He ranks 35th in on-target percentage among the 40 quarterbacks with the most pass attempts.

A rough quarterbacking week

If it seemed like quarterbacks were off their game in Week 10, that’s a reasonable assessment. A season-high 11 quarterbacks turned in games of -5 PAA or worse. That was the most such games since Week 13 of the 2018 season had 12 (quarterbacks that week included Jeff Driskel, Josh McCown, Cody Kessler, and Mark Sanchez).

Drew Lock suffered the most, falling from No. 28 to well out of the top 30 after throwing four interceptions against the Raiders.

Lowest-Scoring PAA Games of Week 10

PlayerGame PAAOpponent
Nick Foles-14.0Vikings
Drew Lock-11.6Raiders
Jake Luton-9.2Packers
Joe Burrow-8.0Steelers
Nick Mullens-7.7Saints
Teddy Bridgewater-7.3Buccaneers
Josh Allen-7.0Cardinals
Carson Wentz-5.8Giants
Justin Herbert-5.4Dolphins
Russell Wilson-5.2Rams
Jameis Winston-5.049ers

Alex Smith takes a positive from defeat

Lastly (but no longer last), Alex Smith had the fourth-best game of the week by PAA with a 390-yard effort in a loss to the Vikings. That moved him out of the bottom spot (No. 83) in our rankings, which is now held by Sam Darnold. Carson Wentz’s descent continues. He’s only one spot ahead of Darnold.

The complete rankings are below.

World’s No. 1 Quarterback Rankings

RkPlayerPAA Per 60Last RkStart Of Season
1Patrick Mahomes7.211
2Aaron Rodgers6.622
3Russell Wilson4.833
4Derek Carr3.944
5Tom Brady3.8811
6Drew Brees3.556
7Deshaun Watson3.5615
8Matt Ryan3.179
9Philip Rivers2.21010
10Josh Allen1.5939
11Kirk Cousins1.2115
12Dak Prescott0.6147
13Ryan Tannehill0.61322
14Kyler Murray0.51217
15Matthew Stafford0.31716
16Teddy Bridgewater0.01521
17Justin Herbert0.016N/A
18Ryan Fitzpatrick-0.51813
19Ben Roethlisberger-0.52135
20Jared Goff-0.62214
21Jacoby Brissett-0.61912
22Taysom Hill-1.02018
23Tua Tagovailoa-1.326N/A
24Lamar Jackson-1.7258
25Joe Burrow-1.823N/A
26Jimmy Garoppolo-1.82420
27Baker Mayfield-2.22741
28Matt Moore-2.32924
29Chase Daniel-2.43025
30Matt Schaub-2.73332
31Blake Bortles-2.73433
32Jeff Driskel-2.73529
33Mike Glennon-2.73638
34Gardner Minshew-2.73730
35Brett Hundley-2.83840
36Nate Sudfeld-2.83942
37Trevor Siemian-2.84044
38Geno Smith-2.84143
39Paxton Lynch-2.84245
40David Fales-2.84346
41DeShone Kizer-2.84448
42Joshua Dobbs-2.84549
43David Blough-2.84751
44Sean Mannion-2.94852
45Josh McCown-2.94956
46Cody Kessler-2.95055
47Marcus Mariota-2.95147
48AJ McCarron-2.95258
49Blaine Gabbert-2.95459
50Case Keenum-2.95327
51Jameis Winston-3.03226
52Matt Barkley-3.05560
53Robert Griffin III-3.05662
54Cam Newton-3.07331
55Nick Mullens-3.03137
56Garrett Gilbert-3.057N/A
57C.J. Beathard-3.05853
58Mason Rudolph-3.15964
59Drew Lock-3.12836
60Jarrett Stidham-3.260N/A
61Brandon Allen-3.26165
62Nathan Peterman-3.26275
63Joe Flacco-3.37157
64Devlin Hodges-3.36367
65Tyrod Taylor-3.36463
66Colt McCoy-3.46569
67Daniel Jones-3.47566
68Brian Hoyer-3.46668
69Nick Foles-3.56728
70Eli Manning-3.56870
71Kyle Allen-3.66973
72Jake Luton-3.646N/A
73Andy Dalton-3.67054
74Brett Rypien-3.772N/A
75Alex Smith-3.98323
76Ben DiNucci-3.974N/A
77Will Grier-4.17674
78Josh Rosen-4.17876
79Mitchell Trubisky-4.17771
80Ryan Finley-4.47977
81Dwayne Haskins-4.78134
82Carson Wentz-4.88019
83Sam Darnold-5.38250

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