Top Prop Bets for Saturday NFL Games

By Steve Schwartz

Instead of one Thursday night game, the NFL has provided a juicy three-game Saturday schedule for your enjoyment. Unfortunately, there are a lot of question marks for the Houston-Tampa Bay contest which limits our options in the opener, but we have found a number of favorable odds for you to take advantage in the final two games.

The following props are evaluated using SISBets.com (registered users get 10 free queries).

Our overall record is 25-21, including 4-0,  3-13-14-0 in four of the last eight weeks (we went 0-3 last week). Let’s see if we can fix the recent slide! Odds from ParxCasino.com.

1) Cooper Kupp, under 4.5 receptions, +105

Kupp has been targeted less often as the season has progressed, seeing an average of 10.9 targets through Week 8, but just 5.5 targets since. And in the first meeting between the two teams on October 13, he managed just four catches for 17 yards as the 49ers defense dominated the Rams offense. SIS analysis predicts just 3.5 receptions for the Rams slot receiver making a fair price -264, but we are getting +105.

2) George Kittle, over 5.5 receptions, -137

Kittle is coming off his best game of the season catching 13-of-17 targets. He’s caught at least six balls in five of the last six games and nine of 12 this season. In the first meeting with the Rams, he caught all eight targets that came in his direction. SIS data is expecting another big effort from Kittle, with 10.2 targets, 7.1 receptions and 91.9 yards. A fair price should be -247, but it’s currently just -137.

3) Tom Brady, over 20.5 completions, -127

The Patriots running games has been mostly nonexistent this season, which is why Tom Brady will likely finish the season with more than 600 passing attempts. As long as Julian Edelman is active, Brady will continue to fire early and often. He’s completed 20 or more passes in 10-of-15 games this season and our analysis predicts 37.4 passing attempts and 23.3 completions, covering the number easily. The fair price is -246, so it’s a bargain at -127.

4) Cameron Brate, score a touchdown, +425

The Buccaneers are running out of pass catchers. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Scotty Miller will all be watching from the sidelines. That leaves wideout Breshad Perriman and a pair of tight ends, O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate, as the primary options. Brate has a history of getting into the end zone, having scored 20 times from 2016-2018. Brate scored on 16% of his receptions over that span and will be a solid option for Jameis Winston in Week 16. SIS data predicts 5.6 targets and 3.7 catches with a 39% chance of scoring. That means a fair price is +203, but we are getting +425.

5) Cole Beasley, score a touchdown, +450.

Beasley has become a touchdown scorer in Buffalo, having reached the end zone in six of the last nine Bills games. He has a great chance to add to the total in Week 16 as he should see plenty of work with deep threat John Brown likely to be covered by the Patriots top CB Stephon Gilmore. When the two teams played in September, Beasley saw 13 targets and caught seven balls. While he probably won’t see that many targets this time around, SIS data still shows a 37% chance to score. Take the +450.

Sports Info Solutions has been an innovator in the collection and analysis of sports data for almost two decades. SIS specializes in baseball and football data, using professional scouting practices to collect the most detailed and accurate information in both sports. Their data can be found in the majority of team front offices, and on websites such as Fangraphs and Football Outsiders.

Quarterback Touchdown Passes

——————————————

Deshaun Watson, 1.5, odds not listed

Jameis Winston, 1.5, odds not listed

Josh Allen, 0.5, over -200/under +160

Tom Brady, 1.5, over +117/under -148

Jared Goff, 1.5, over +110/under -137

Jimmy Garoppolo, 1.5, over -121/under -103

Quarterback Interceptions

———————————–

Deshaun Watson, 0.5, odds not listed

Jameis Winston, 0.5, odds not listed

Josh Allen, 0.5, over -137/under +110

Tom Brady, 0.5, over -109/under -115

Jared Goff, 0.5, over -167/under +135

Jimmy Garoppolo, 0.5, over -124/under +100

Quarterback Completions

———————————-

Deshaun Watson, not listed

Jameis Winston, not listed

Josh Allen, 17.5 completions, over -103/under -141

Tom Brady, 20.5 completions, over -127/under -113

Jared Goff, not listed

Jimmy Garoppolo, 21.5 completions, over -103/under -140

Touchdown Scorers

Houston Texans

———————

DeAndre Hopkins -106

Carlos Hyde +120

Will Fuller +130

Kenny Stills +180

Deshaun Watson +225

Duke Johnson +260

Darren Fells +325

Tampa Bay

—————

Ronald Jones +150

Breshad Perriman +145

Peyton Barber +200

Justin Watson +210

O.J. Howard +240

Cameron Brate +425

Dare Ogunbowale +375

Jameis Winston +800

Buffalo

———

John Brown +350

Devin Singletary +220

Josh Allen +250

Cole Beasley +450

Frank Gore +450

New England Patriots

—————————-

Julian Edelman +200

Sony Michel +110

James White +225

Rex Burkhead +325

Mohamed Sanu +350

N’Keal Harry +450

Tom Brady +650

Los Angeles Rams

————————

Brandin Cooks +325

Todd Gurley -106

Cooper Kupp +225

Robert Woods +275

Malcolm Brown +325

Tyler Higbee +325

Gerald Everett +375

Jared Goff +850

San Francisco

——————

Raheem Mostert +110

George Kittle +130

Emmanuel Sanders +180

Deebo Samuel +180

Matt Breida +285

Tevin Coleman +300

Kendrick Bourne +325

Jimmy Garoppolo +800

Total Receptions

———————-

Buffalo at New England –

James White, 4.5 receptions, over +100/under -125

Cole Beasley, 4.5 receptions, over +121/under -152

John Brown, 3.5 receptions, over -122/under -103

Los Angeles at San Francisco –

Deebo Samuel, 3.5 receptions, over +105/under -130

Emmanuel Sanders, 3.5 receptions, over -155/under +125

Cooper Kupp, 4.5 receptions, over -130/under +105

Robert Woods, 4.5 receptions, over -148/under +117

George Kittle, 5.5 receptions, over -137/under +110

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