Some midseason updates to the Total Points calculation
By Alex Vigderman
Over the course of the year, we occasionally find certain plays or players that highlight something that isn’t quite right in the Total Points System. Also, because there are so many data points to comb through, we sometimes wait a bit to include something because we aren’t sure what to do with it yet. As a result of that, we have some updates to the Total Points calculations, which are now available on both the Pro and public versions of the SIS DataHub.
Here’s a rundown of the key changes:
- The back-end basis for Total Points, Points Above Average, is now forced to center at zero for each point type (passing, rushing, pass coverage, etc.). This isn’t a large change because these numbers were already close to zero, but does make the term Points Above Average more appropriate
- On passing plays, the calculation used to split Air Yards, Yards After Catch, and Yards After Contact between the passer and receiver. The Air category has been split into an initial Throw value which estimates the value of the throw based on the route and depth, and a Catch value that focuses more on the accuracy of the pass and the catching ability of the receiver. Defensive backs split responsibility for the Throw portion, but the primary defender is the only one responsible for the Catch portion.
- Playoffs are now excluded when calculating the average performance for different statistics (e.g. yards after the catch, blown block rate)
- Centers are now being evaluated for aborted snaps (or lack thereof), which also gives quarterbacks a little less blame when that happens
- Some running backs were getting an outsized debit when they failed to convert inside the five yard line because they failed to get enough yards after contact. The calculation was changed to use a different threshold for yards after contact on goal line runs, punishing those players much less.
- Both offensive and defensive players now have the ability to get credit for recovering a fumble. For offensive players, that’s the inverse of the value that is lost by the fumbling player. For defensive players, it’s the same as the value lost by the fumbling player.
- Offensive players are now being credited for advancing a recovered fumble based on the yards gained
- Pass rushers are now being credited for accumulating pressure stats (hurries, hits, knockdowns, sacks) relative to the average for players lined up at their position.
- On plays where one pass rusher hurries the quarterback and a different player gets the sack, the hurrier is now splitting credit for the sack