By Steven Schwartz
The surging Pittsburgh Steelers head into Cleveland for an important matchup. It will be typical AFC North weather, cold and a bit windy, but no precipitation should affect the game.
The following props are evaluated using SISBets.com (registered users get 10 free queries).
Our overall record is 22-10, including 4-0, 3-1, 3-1, and 4-0 the last four weeks (feel free to go back and look – our posts come out every Thursday morning or early afternoon). Odds from ParxCasino.com
1) Mason Rudolph, 20.5 completions, over -114
We start off with the best pick of the night. Since their bye in Week 7, Rudolph has averaged 22.7 completions per game as the Steelers have gone on a four-game win streak. SISBets analysis has Rudolph completing 24.4 passes on 38.5 attempts and gives him a 78% chance of going over. That puts fair value at -358, but the current line is just -114.
2) Diontae Johnson, 3.5 receptions, under +134
While we like Rudolph to go over his completion total, we go the other way with wideout Diontae Johnson. That’s because the analysis shows Rudolph will be throwing a majority of his passes to his backs (13.6 targets) and tight ends (6.3 targets). With JuJu Smith-Schuster and James Washington taking a big chunk of the remainder, our tool projects 2.9 receptions for Johnson and gives him a 67% chance of going under 3.5. Fair value should be -203, but we are getting +134.
3) James Conner, score a TD, +130
After missing the past two games with a shoulder injury, Conner is not listed on the most recent injury report and will return for the Thursday night contest. The star running back has scored in five of seven games this season with the only two teams to keep him out of the end zone being New England and San Francisco. The Browns defense isn’t in that elite class. SISBets data gives Conner a 59% chance to score (-146) while we are getting +130 from the casino.
4) Mason Rudolph, over 1.5 touchdown passes, +145
The Browns pass defense is stingy on yards allowed, but had yielded a generous 16 touchdown passes in nine games. Until last weekend when they held Josh Allen off the board (he ran for two scores), Cleveland had allowed at least two touchdown passes in six consecutive games. We make Rudolph a 51% favorite to throw for two scores and like the +145 the casino has posted.
Sports Info Solutions has been an innovator in the collection and analysis of sports data for almost two decades. SIS specializes in baseball and football data, using professional scouting practices to collect the most detailed and accurate information in both sports. Their data can be found in the majority of team front offices, and on websites such as Fangraphs and Football Outsiders.
Quarterback Touchdown Passes
Mason Rudolph, 1.5, over +145/under -182
Baker Mayfield, 1.5, over +138/under -175
Mason Rudolph, 0.5, over -182/under +145
Baker Mayfield, 0.5, over -235/under +183
Mason Rudolph, 20.5 completions, over -114/under -109
Baker Mayfield, 20.5 completions, over -139/under +112
James Conner +130
JuJu Smith-Schuster +210
Jaylen Samuels +285
Diontae Johnson +285
James Washington +375
Vance McDonald +350
Trey Edmunds +700
Mason Rudolph +1200
Nick Vannett +1600
Nick Chubb -167
Kareem Hunt +210
Odell Beckham Jr. +225
Jarvis Landry +225
Antonio Callaway +500
Demetrius Harris +550
Ricky Seals-Jones +750
Rashard Higgins +750
Baker Mayfield +750
Dontrell Hilliard +1300
JuJu Smith-Schuster, 4.5, over +124/under -155
Diontae Johnson, 3.5, over -167/under +134
Vance McDonald, 3.5, over +145/under -182
Odell Beckham Jr., 4.5, over -152/under +122
Jarvis Landry, 4.5, over -114/under -109