Top props for 49ers-Cardinals

By Steve Schwartz

Week 9 begins in Arizona where the unbeaten San Francisco 49ers look to keep their record clean against an improving Arizona Cardinals squad. Be sure to check the status of star running back David Johnson (ankle) before doing anything. He’s missed all but three snaps in the past two games and I don’t expect him to be in this one either, but a late change could have an effect on some prop bets.

Props are evaluated using SISBets.com – our overall record is 15-9, including 4-0 and 3-1 the last two weeks (the only wrong pick was a longshot on whether Case Keenum would score a touchdown). Odds from ParxCasino.com

1) Jimmy Garoppolo, 18.5 completions, over -139.

Garoppolo hasn’t cracked the 18-completion mark in either of the last two games, but I’m blaming extenuating circumstances more than the quarterback. A monsoon in Washington led to little passing and an easy shutout win and last Sunday an early 21-point burst made passing an afterthought. In his first five games, he averaged 20.4 completions. The SISbets data makes a fair value at -330 on this prop bet and we are only paying -139.

2) Kenyan Drake, score a touchdown +260.

The newest Cardinals back will get some immediate work because he’s the most talented of what remains after injuries to Johnson (ankle) and Chase Edmonds (hamstring). It’s Drake or last week’s signings Zach Zenner and Alfred Morris. Our numbers say Drake should be +150, but here we are getting much more than that at +260.

3) Kyler Murray, 0.5 interceptions, under +134.

Murray has gone four consecutive games without throwing an interception after throwing four in the first four games. He learns quickly. He’ll likely be under a heavy rush for the 49ers front line in this one, but that just means he won’t be throwing late over the middle which frequently is a very bad thing for under bettors. Instead he’ll use his legs after the first read and run. Run Kyler run! We make fair market value at -122 and we are getting +134.

4) Jimmy Garoppolo, 1.5 touchdown passes, under +133.

“Jimmy G” has just nine touchdown passes in seven games and even throwing out the monsoon game in Week 7, he’s still averaging just 1.5 touchdown passes per game. Meanwhile, the undefeated 49ers have rushed for 13 scores on the ground this season. We make a fair number at -110, but we are getting +133 here. Take it.

Sports Info Solutions has been an innovator in the collection and analysis of sports data for almost two decades. SIS specializes in baseball and football data, using professional scouting practices to collect the most detailed and accurate information in both sports. Their data can be found in the majority of team front offices, and on websites such as Fangraphs and Football Outsiders.

Quarterback Touchdown Passes

——————————————

Jimmy Garoppolo, 1.5, over -167/under +133

Kyler Murray, 1.5, over +168/under -215

Quarterback Interceptions

———————————–

Jimmy Garoppolo, 0.5, over -112/under -112

Kyler Murray, 0.5, over -167/under +134

 

Quarterback Completions

———————————-

Jimmy Garoppolo, 18.5 completions, over -139/under +112

Kyler Murray, 20.5 completions, over -106/under -118

 

 

Touchdown Scorers

————————–

San Francisco –

Tevin Coleman -125
George Kittle +120
Emmanuel Sanders +175
Jeff Wilson +210
Raheem Mostert +210
Matt Breida +210
Deebo Samuel +260
Marquise Goodwin +300

Dante Pettis                    +450

Jimmy Garoppolo          +700

 

Arizona –

David Johnson +150
Larry Fitzgerald +250
Kenyan Drake +260
Christian Kirk +275
Kyler Murray +375
Zach Zenner +375
Damiere Byrd +450
Alfred Morris +550

 

Total Receptions

———————-

San Francisco –

George Kittle, 5.5, over -165/under +132

Emmanuel Sanders, 4.5, over +143/under -180

Marquise Goodwin, 2.5, over +183/under -235

Deebo Samuel, 2.5, over -155/under +124

 

Arizona –

Larry Fitzgerald, 3.5, over -125/under +101

Christian Kirk, 4.5, over +114/under -141

 

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