By Steve Schwartz
The streaking Minnesota Vikings, coming off three wins in a row and averaging 36 ppg over that span, host Washington, who have only one win this season (Miami), and are a huge 15.5-point underdog in this one. Weather will not be a factor in the domed U.S. Bank Stadium.
We are 12-8 in our picks so far after going 4-0 last week.
1) Jeremy Sprinkle, under 2.5 receptions, -124.
Sprinkle is getting playing time because the oft-injured Jordan Reed is hurt again and Vernon Davis is dealing with a concussion and questionable for Week 8. Sprinkle has yet to catch more than two passes in any game this season and the team has a total of 21 receptions from all its tight ends combined or three per game. The Redskins are a run-first offense and our statistics say he should see 2.3 targets and 1.5 receptions. The under should be -423, but it’s just -124.
2) Stefon Diggs, over 5.5 receptions, over +100.
Without Adam Thielen (hamstring), Diggs should see more than his normal target level and since Kirk Cousins has gotten hot over the past three games, he’s averaged 7.7 targets and 5.7 receptions. At +100 the casino has this as an even money bet, but our analysis makes Diggs a -171 favorite, with 9 targets and 6.5 catches.
3) Kirk Cousins, over 21.5 completions, +100.
Apparently they haven’t been paying attention to Cousins over the past four weekends. He has surprassed 21.5 completions in four consecutive games. And now he’s playing his former team, who messed around with his contract, franchising him twice when he really just wanted to leave. Karma is a b****. SIS Bets is predicting 23.8 completions. A fair market value for this prop bet should be -205, but it’s currently at +100.
4) Case Keenum, score a touchdown, +2200.
This one is a bet you only make if you are playing with “house” money. It’s a longshot, but not as long a shot as the casino would have you think. There is about a 10-percent chance according to our numbers that the Washington quarterback will run one in, but we are offered 22-1 odds. Keenum hasn’t rushed for a touchdown this season, but in 16 starts last season for Denver, he did it twice.
Sports Info Solutions has been an innovator in the collection and analysis of sports data for almost two decades. SIS specializes in baseball and football data, using professional scouting practices to collect the most detailed and accurate information in both sports. Their data can be found in the majority of team front offices, and on websites such as Fangraphs and Football Outsiders.
Quarterback Touchdown Passes
Case Keenum, 1.5, over +142/under -180
Kirk Cousins, 1.5, over -124/under +100
Case Keenum, 0.5, over -152/under +122
Kirk Cousins, 0.5, over +119/under -148
Case Keenum, 19.5 completions, over -124/under +100
Kirk Cousins, 21.5 completions, over +100/under -124
|Irv Smith Jr.||+325|
Paul Richardson, 2.5, over +100/under -124
Jeremy Sprinkle, 2.5, over +100/under -124
Trey Quinn, 3.5, over -120/under -105
Terry McLaurin, 4.5, over +108/under -134
Irv Smith Jr., 2.5, over +140/under -177
Kyle Rudolph, 2.5, over -143/under +115
Dalvin Cook, 3.5, over +105/under -130
Olabisi Johnson, 3.5, over -118/under -106
Stefon Diggs, 5.5, over +100/under -124