Top prop bets for Chiefs-Broncos

By Steve Schwartz

Here are the top prop bets for Thursday night’s game between the Chiefs and Broncos based on analysis using SISBets.com, our sports props analysis tool (register to use and receive 10 free queries).

All odds come from ParxCasino.com

Overall record: 8-8. Last week: 1-3

1) LeSean McCoy, 2.5 receptions, under -195.

McCoy has been a great receiving back over his career with 488 receptions, but in 2019 he’s in a shared running back situation and hasn’t caught more than two balls in a game since Week 3. The Chiefs simply have too many options now that Tyreek Hill and Damien Williams are back in the lineup. Our data says the under should be -600, but it’s currently at -195.

2) Courtland Sutton, 4.5 receptions, over -104.

A second-round pick of the Broncos in 2018, Sutton has already become the team’s No. 1 wide receiver with 46 targets, 30 catches, 477 yards and three touchdown catches. That’s an average of almost eight targets and five receptions per game. The Chiefs pass defense is ranked in the bottom half. At -104 that’s a steal based on our data which puts a fair market value at -278.

3) Travis Kelce, 6.5 receptions, under -150.

Kelce does lead Kansas City in targets (49) and receptions (32), but the Chiefs passing game has been out-of-sync the past two games and the All-Pro tight end has caught just four balls in each of those games. The Broncos have allowed 28 receptions to tight ends in six games. SIS analysis predicts 5.2 receptions and a fair number should be -274, so it’s a bargain at -150.

4) Royce Freeman, 2.5 receptions, over -195.

Phillip Lindsay is getting all the media attention, but Freeman is getting 44-percent of the rushing attempts and just under 50-percent of the running back receiving targets. With 21 receptions over six games he’s averaging 3.5 catches per game, including at least four balls in four of the last five. He’s a big favorite to go over, but not as big as he should be, at -195. Fair market value should be -320.

Sports Info Solutions has been an innovator in the collection and analysis of sports data for almost two decades. SIS specializes in baseball and football data, using professional scouting practices to collect the most detailed and accurate information in both sports. Their data can be found in the majority of team front offices, and on websites such as Fangraphs and Football Outsiders.

Other props

Quarterback Touchdown Passes

——————————————

Patrick Mahomes, 1.5, over -190/under +150

Joe Flacco, 1.5, over -124/under -155

 

Quarterback Interceptions

———————————–

Patrick Mahomes, 0.5, over -121/under -104

Joe Flacco, 0.5, over -143/under +115

 

Quarterback Completions

———————————-

Patrick Mahomes, 23.5 completions, over -124/under 100

Joe Flacco, 21.5 completions, over -118/under -106

 

Touchdown Scorers

————————–

Kansas City –

Travis Kelce +110
Tyreek Hill +110
LeSean McCoy +135
Sammy Watkins +240
Damien Williams +250
Mecole Hardman +285
Demarcus Robinson +350
Byron Pringle +450
Patrick Mahomes +600
Darrel Williams +650
De’Anthony Thomas +750

 

Denver –

Phillip Lindsay +100
Courtland Sutton +150
Royce Freeman +160
Emmanuel Sanders +225
Noah Fant +260
DaeSean Hamilton +400
Jeff Heuerman +1000
Joe Flacco +1000
Fred Brown +1000

 

Total Receptions

———————-

Kansas City –

LeSean McCoy 2.5, over +153/under -195

Tyreek Hill, 5.5, over +120/under -150

Travis Kelce, 6.5, over +120/under -150

 

Denver –

Phillip Lindsay, 2.5, over -195/under +153

Royce Freeman, 2.5, over -195/under +153

Noah Fant, 2.5, over +120/under -150

Emmanuel Sanders, 3.5, over -148/under +118

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