By Steve Schwartz
In this Thursday’s game, with the home New England Patriots favored by more than two touchdowns, a number of the prop bets on Patriots players could be affected by the expectation that they could be sitting in the fourth quarter. Therefore, most of the plays will be about the Giants who should be out there for the full 60 minutes.
1) Daniel Jones, over 0.5 TD passes, -240.
Daniel Jones has started three games and completed at least one touchdown pass in every game. And while the Patriots defense has been the best in the league, yielding a league-low 39 points including zero touchdown passes with 11 interceptions, the Giants figure to be playing from behind with a third-string running back and throwing for much of the game. Our data predicts he’ll throw close to 40 passes, and an interception or two, but the SISdata says he should be a -395 favorite to throw one or more touchdown passes and you are only giving -240.
2) Daniel Jones, over 20.5 completions, -105.
Just as Jones should throw 1.6 touchdown passes among his almost 40 attempts, the data shows he should complete 24.0 passes which is well above the required amount to win this prop bet. SISdata made a fair number at -312, but the line is just -105. There will be weather in the area around Gillette Stadium Thursday night and rain shouldn’t effect this one option, but be careful if the winds are gusting above 17-20 mph. If that’s the case you should bypass this play. Many times if teams are throwing into a strong wind they opt for a ground attack leaving the quarterback just two favorable quarters to reach his goal.
3) Jonathan Hilliman, score TD, +325.
If Saquon Barkley and Wayne Gallman are inactive as expected, Jonathan Hilliman will be the starter and workhorse. He should see around 14 rushing attempts and will obviously be the goal line rushing option as well. Our data shows fair market value should be +154, but he’s listed at +325 to score.
4) James White, score TD, +230.
If the weather is questionable as expected, the Pats offense usually goes to the short passing game which means Julian Edelman in the slot and James White out of the backfield. Over the past two games, White has reappeared as part of the offense seeing 19 targets and catching 14 of them. Against Washington in Week 4 he also had a season high six rushing attempts. Both men have favorable numbers, but White’s is slightly better with a chance to score either through the air or on the ground. SISdata analysis puts White at a +154, but the casino is offering a generous +230.
Sports Info Solutions has been an innovator in the collection and analysis of sports data for almost two decades. SIS specializes in baseball and football data, using professional scouting practices to collect the most detailed and accurate information in both sports. Their data can be found in the majority of team front offices, and on websites such as Fangraphs and Football Outsiders.
Quarterback Touchdown Passes
Daniel Jones, 0.5, over -240/under +185
Tom Brady, 1.5, over -275/under +210
Daniel Jones, 0.5, over -250/under +194
Tom Brady, 0.5, over +129/under -162
Daniel Jones, 20.5 completions, over -105/under -120
Tom Brady, 24.5 completions, over +117/under -148
New York –
Golden Tate, +300
Jonathan Hilliman, +325
Rhett Ellison, +550
Darius Slayton, +450
Elijhaa Penny, +500
Daniel Jones, +600
Cody Latimer, +800
New England –
Sony Michel, -162
James White, +230
Julian Edelman, +135
Josh Gordon, +150
Red Burkhead, +210
Phillip Dorsett, +225
Jacoby Meyers, +275
Brandon Bolden, +350
Matt LaCosse, +475
Ryan Izzo, +550
Tom Brady, +900
New York –
Golden Tate, 5.5, over +128/under -159
Darius Slayton, 3.5, over +103/under -129
New England –
Julian Edelman, 5.5, -148/under +118
Josh Gordon, 3.5, over -152/under +122