By Steve Schwarz
Thursday’s game doesn’t have any “bet-the-house” options, but we have found a number of variances between our numbers and the casino which could be exploited. Beware, however, the Thursday weather report for Seattle does include a chance for a few showers which could complicate things.
A reminder that if you want to look at projections for any prop bet, you can try SISBets.com. Register for 10 free queries.
1) Tyler Lockett, over 4.5 receptions, -134.
Lockett has produced two double-digit reception days and even in a blowout win over Arizona last weekend caught four balls. He leads the Seahawks in targets, averaging eight per contest, and given his 81% catch-percentage in 2019 and his 81% catch percentage last season it’s reasonable to project the over. Our analysis predicts this at a -220 rate, but we are only paying -134.
2) Jared Goff, under 24.5 completions, -112.
Goff’s 45 completions on Sunday (in 68 attempts), shouldn’t scare you away from betting the under in this one. That was Tampa Bay and the Rams were playing from behind. This game against the Seahawks will be played like a playoff game with the winner getting the early upper hand in the division. In none of the first three games of the season, did Goff produce 25 completions and in the three playoff games to finish 2018 he averaged just 19.6 completions. Then add in the chance for a wet football and that adds to the likelihood of him finishing under. A fair price here should be -162, but its -112.
3) Russell Wilson, under 21.5 completions, -112.
Wilson has begun the season as hot as he’s ever been, but still he’s averaging just 24 completions per game against the likes of Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, New Orleans and Arizona. He’ll be facing the 2017 and 2018 Defensive Player of the Year in Aaron Donald. Before last Sunday’s failures the team was allowing just 16.3 points per game. A fair price should be -156, but the casino odds are just -112.
4) Todd Gurley, score a touchdown, +105.
Over his last 33 games, Gurley has scored 43 touchdowns (33 rushing, 10 receiving). That’s a pretty good sample size, including three in four games this season. He’s also scored nine times in seven career games against Seattle, yet he’s a slight underdog in this prop bet. SISdata analysis project that Gurley should be a -123 favorite here.
Sports Info Solutions has been an innovator in the collection and analysis of sports data for almost two decades. SIS specializes in baseball and football data, using professional scouting practices to collect the most detailed and accurate information in both sports. Their data can be found in the majority of team front offices, and on websites such as Fangraphs and Football Outsiders.
Quarterback Touchdown Passes
Jared Goff, 1.5, over -120/under -104
Russell Wilson, 1.5, over -162/under +130
Jared Goff, 0.5, over -167/under +134
Russell Wilson, 0.5, over +122/under -122
Jared Goff, 24.5 completions, over -112/under -112
Russell Wilson, 21.5 completions, over -112/under -112
Jaron Brown, +425
Chris Carson, +110
Will Dissly, +150
Tyler Lockett, +105
D.K. Metcalf, +150
David Moore, +700
Rashaad Penny, +375
C.J. Prosise, +550
Malik Turner, +800
Russell Wilson, +350
Los Angeles Rams –
Malcolm Brown, +165
Brandin Cooks, +200
Gerald Everett, +375
Jared Goff, +850
Todd Gurley, +105
Tyler Higbee, +425
Cooper Kupp, +125
Josh Reynolds, +800
Robert Woods, +225
Chris Carson, 2.5, over 100/under -124
Will Dissly, 4.5, over 120/under -150
Tyler Lockett, 4.5, over -134/under +107
D.K. Metcalf, 2.5, over -137/under +110
Los Angeles Rams –
Brandin Cooks, 4.5, -112/under -112
Todd Gurley, 2.5, over -162/under +130
Cooper Kupp, 6.5, over +120/under -150
Robert Woods, 5.5, +110/under -137